Its all coming together Part Two
May 13, 2010
So in Part One I tried to persuade you that we are living in the transition between two scientific and technological epochs or to use Kuhn’s terms ‘scientific paradigms’. Epoch One lasted until 1930s when Turing published “On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem” in reply to Godels work on his incompleteness theorem and set in train the start of formal exploration of cybernetics and artificial intelligence and its counter-point; the examination of the human mind using physical and mathematical means.
At that point in time (well, that generation) there was also a crux in mathematics and physics as the mathematics of complexity and quantum physics started to come to the fore. A new paradigm was born either side of WWII and it had nothing to do with steam power or communication networks. It was a change in the fundamental endeavour of science from automating and enhancing things that our bodies do (higher, faster, more accurately, stronger, bigger, further) towards doing things that our minds do (smarter, with more empathy, more responsibly, more beautifully, happier).
In understanding this we can start to understand how the current changes in communication networks, democratic engagement and the changing role of journalism fit together with wider technical and societal changes.
For example, if we accept that the internet represents a vast and near universally accessible library of all fact and opinion (which is questionable right now, but we’re closer now than ever before) then the role of the journalist is equatable to the role of the academic librarian or research assistant. Send them to seek and sooner or later they will find. Sounds like something to automate, yes ? Absolutely ! In fact lets start a company, call it Google and make cash off the back of advertising through it as millions of folk send out their own librarians to find the information that they want. Dead easy. Also at its most basic its a simple piece of maths in the ‘causal’ vein, but Google is a bit smarter and uses users to provide relativistic data in its performance so that the next search is incrementally more probable to meet the next users requirements. Up the ladder of sophistication we go.
What Google can’t do is generate opinion to kick its performance up the ladder. That is a function of mind. That is you telling the librarian “No, that’s not quite the sort of data I want. Bring me books with more blue on the cover”. Google’s vast size allows it to ape mind function, but it still us that dictate page rank in the end.
So there are different approaches towards this automation of mind.
There is the world of computation, where patterns are sought in vast data sets and those patterns linked to probability functions which relate to success or failure. Computation assumes that all answers are available somewhere in the information universe and that calculations are maps to find the answers. Where uncertainty exists a set of the most likely answers can be gathered and presented a la Wolfram Alpha.
There is the Google way of hiding behind stolen opinions and making believe that intelligence exists.
And there is the human way of just having more minds available operating with access to data that has a higher level of sophistication (its called education).
We don’t yet have a functional model of consciousness. We’ve been working on it for 70 years give or take, but we’re not there yet and there are doubts whether we yet have the tools to get there. My own suspicion is that just as the electronic age required a new physics and maths to advance, the age of the mind will too. We need to really understand quantum computing and strange effects like entanglement to get anywhere close to having the brute computing power of the human brain.
So again how does this affect journalism and democracy. Well for all the cost efficiencies of news aggregators, the multiplicity of voices in the ether means that journalism has two very different routes.
The first is as computer engineer designing search algorithms to seek out the juiciest data and re-present it a la carte. Quite frankly that role will not last long as available compute power rises. It is also the least sophisticated solution. Its cause and effect. ‘The data is now there, so lets go and get it’.
The second route is to abandon objectivity as core to definition of journalism. This is the more sophisticated route to take. Actually take the time and make the effort to have a valid opinion. Use the mind to its greatest advantage. Embrace plurality as a mode of expression. BUT you have to educate everyone to make sure that they too may have access to the same raw data and be able to understand it, in order to be able to critically assess your opinion.
So bloggers are a potential future, so are twitterers or whatever comes next, but only if we are smart enough to understand what is being said and why.
That’s all for now. I’m having a break from thinking in order to earn some money.
Life logging and loosing yourself
May 2, 2010
In response to a couple of recent pieces on identity by Jeff Jarvis and one by Gary Wolfe of Wired on living by numbers.
It should be becoming obvious by now that I’m quite pragmatic about technologies, especially those that purport to replace mind function with mathematics, and these two threads are kind of along the same lines. Interesting, but not quite right. In fact Wolfe’s piece is quite wrong in some ways, but typical of the cyber-utopian and really getting very dull these days. We’ve had the net 20 years and its still a shiny box to be prayed to for some people. Get over it Wolfe and actually think about what you are saying ! Your words are more important than the technology.
Case in point; Wolfe’s piece describes a number of different strands to the general social and technological movement towards quantification and couples them with communication. Fine. No problems with that analysis. Automated diaries, blood sugar monitoring, chips in the soles of our shoes recording physical exercise, etc, etc, all feeding data into a set of databases that may or may not be accessible by other people to react to. A method of capturing all that time that is wasted without noticing it. A way to streamline activity. Be more productive. Really ?
Quote (of those subjecting themselves to self-tracking);
“they are also looking to understand their strengths and weaknesses, to uncover potential they didn’t know they had. Self-tracking, in this way, is not really a tool of optimization but of discovery, and if tracking regimes that we would once have thought bizarre are becoming normal, one of the most interesting effects may be to make us re-evaluate what “normal” means.”
Apart from the obvious internal contradiction, I wonder whether Wolfe questioned what it is about self-tracking that appeals to the American psyche (as his pieces seems to imply). What it is about systematically removing the spontaneous actions from everyday life that is seen as a positive ? To me its disturbing that a dominant global culture seems so eager to stop thinking and to export the idea that contemplation is no longer a valid goal in itself. Does that imply that Americans believe that understanding of self can only come with unceasing, unidirectional activity. Not only that, but a piece of mathematics is in a better position to tell you what you need than your own mind. Do you trust yourself so little ?
Of course there are good things about the life logging movement. Medical diagnostics is probably the best example, but the good things will tend to be the physical. Try as hard as you can to avoid trying to replicating mind functions. Please ? For me. Just this once.
This is where we cross into the issues around identity that JJ has been looking at. Online identity is something that I’ve dealt with professionally for the best part of a decade and I have to say, technically its no longer an interesting issue. However it is an interesting social and philosophical issue as we spend more and more time immersed in worlds made of other peoples imaginings.
The crucial thing to remember is that we cannot control how other people see us in a world where we can sprout wings and fly off to Brazil in a second. Identity as a projection of self is no longer irreducible if your existence is mediated. So while there is value in being able to prove that you are who you say you are in a transactional sense, there is less and less value in communicating who you are in a personal sense. Question; what is a hate crime in 2nd life ?
Veracity Values, Radical Truth and Global Individualism
April 10, 2009
This is not a fully formed idea, but I’m going to put it on ‘paper’ to see how it looks.
There appears to be a pretty good consensus, amongst European intelligentsia at least, that the world is now searching for a new economic and social paradigm. Socialism died in the 1980s. Free-market capitalism is in the intensive care unit and looking like its on its last legs. What else is out there ?
How about we all start telling the truth and allow everyone the freedom to decide themselves ?
Sound like free-markets to you ? Well, its not.
If you legislate the truth, the dynamic of competitive advantage changes dramatically. If everyone knows the way that everything is produced, then you should end up with infinite choice and mass customization right down to raw materials used and energy used to make them.
The idea of tailored markets enabled through technology is not new. There’s plenty of Silicon Valley scions working on just this. What is, I think, new is coupling this with the ability to massively link evidential data in a semantic web-style application to enable the individual to make an informed choice.
I call this concept ‘valuing veracity’.
Take two widgets physically identical in every way. One was made from ‘organically’ mined stuff in Sweden, the other from ‘chemically’ mined stuff in Congo by 12 yr old kids. Both were fabricated in the same Japanese factory and shipped to the consumer, one by plane, the other by boat. So which one do you want to buy ? Do you want the plane-shipped Swedish widget or the child-mined boat shipped Congolese widget ? Or do you want to imagine that you are getting the boat-shipped Swedish widget ?
The truth is that there is no way to tell them apart, so you might as well buy the one that provides you with the best satisfaction at point of sale (economists call this maximising the utility function).
BUT ! If you could tell them apart by looking at an audit trail of what the widgets materials are made of, how much they cost in energy/emissions terms, the working conditions, the local labour conditions, etc, etc. You could have a very different view on what constitutes maximisation of your utility. You might feel bad that your widget was made by 12-yr old kids and choose one that was made by 13-yr olds instead. Next year the 12-yr old’s widget line goes out of business (making all the 12 yr olds redundant) and there is a new 14-yr olds widget line available instead.
The example is fatuous, but it illustrates a point. If you change the information available you are likely to change what constitutes satisfaction. From then on its up to the individual on how they interpret their own minds.
So where do radical truth and veracity values come in ?
Radical Truth first – Jeff Jarvis (blog Buzz Machine) recently told of a workshop he carried out at this year’s Davos meeting. In it he asked groups to come up with concepts for redesigning banking. One team came up with the concept of Radical Truth. Basically making all decision-making open and all business streams fully accountable, all the way to the Main Street customer in order to rebuild confidence in the system.
Tim Berners-Lee recently called for all raw data to be published. Databases on anything you like should be available in raw form, not as press releases or handy journalist-digestible quotes, but as raw statistical data.
Before his talk at TED I was playing with using text-mining as a way to parse large amounts of data to divine trends in resource use and came up with a ‘certificate-based’ authentication system to track resources from production in order to embed their social cost of production. Not an absolute truth, but a measure of veracity or verifiability – a veracity value that would work in a similar way to security certificates, but have a sliding scale of values and links to the evidence trails.
So. Bring the ideas together – audit trails for every bought item, open databases and certificate-based authentication for those data and you get the ability to choose on a level that you never chose before.
You can’t do this in a completely free market because data is considered proprietary and there is no legal or economic compunction to tell the truth.
You need to have a really strong global trade policy to enforce the audit trails and a mechanism to support areas unexpectedly affected by consumer choice (maybe people don’t want New Zealand lamb because of the food miles, maybe they do because of the welfare standards, who knows which will outweigh the other).
I know. Immensely difficult to implement and looks politically unworkable, but I propose it anyway. We have the computer power now, we have the tracking technology (just about) and we are not really at all close to the global governance.
There you go – Veracity Values, Radical Truth and Global Individualism
